well, it could be...

zogger

Fri Jul 04 21:17:33 -0700 2008

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..but then again, recently people have been noticing it is the same handful of huge companies who have had a stranglehold on the markets, along with the same speculator stranglehold which just drives up prices for everyone to benefit a relative few who produce no energy whatsoever, just skim and up the prices. Biofuels have thew ability to give the planet hundreds of thousands of new producers outside the cartels, it allows oil poor nations to eventually become at least partially energy independent, and research is growing daily on using non traditional and non food crops as petroleum alternatives. We kill it off now, that's it, locked to the oil dudes forever. So..this report..and a lot of other anti biofuels blogging and whatnot that has exploded this year could very well be part of a well orchestrated FUD/disinfo campaign, a variation on this sort of gambit.

What is the alternative, just keep shelling it out to the traditional oil majors, and let the pro skimmers keep at it? If we keep doing things the same way, we won't ever see any decent viable alternatives. And until such a time as we have a true electric vehicle market, not 100 grand sports cars and 20 mph golf carts, we have existent milliions of liquid fueled vehicles that need that sort of fuel, and we can't just slap park them all tomorrow and act like nothing else will happen, the planet would starve, economies collapse, etc, full anarchy and chaos.

So it is shell it out to the oil companies or look elsewhere and try to make that biofuel tech better. And from what I have been reading, it is the speculators and huge now being bailed out investment banks with their fresh hundreds of billions of betting money they got handed jumping from toxic waste repackaged mortgages crap that they foisted on each other and turned out to be mostly sub junk big nothings and into commodities that is the cause of the biggest price increases, so no way do they really want any public looking *that* way, they want to do all they can to turn it around and blame it on farmers and biofuels. Worldwide demand did NOT go up near as fast as the price increases at the pump we are seeing, NOR did world demand for food, and production is around the same or larger for both the past year, so what does that leave you for a reason? All of it is conversion, even though what is left over is still useful for animal feed? Humans at best only directly eat 2% of corn grown yearly, that's it, it is tiny. What is left? Speculation, bidding and rebidding and rebidding and rebidding up and up and up the price. guys who hold megatonnage sit on it as the prices go up, exactly the same as they sat on oil tankers during the oil embargo back in the day. They made much more money by stopping short of delivery and sitting on the proiduct, so that is what they did.

The world bank represents the hugest big banks and the largest interest in the "inverstment" community there is, the speculators once you get down to it, so I am going to have to take alleged leaked reports blaming the farmers andf biofuels with a grain of salt and look at least half way for it to be deliberate disinformation to try and protect their profits long term. This is trillions of dollars and a century and change huge vendor lockin for energy at stake, makes microsoft on the desktop and in the office look like a little kids chump change lemonade stand. This is *serious* long term money and huge political power at stake, not little tiny joke few tens of billions computer software money, so *how far would they go to keep their positions*? Biofuels right now are the only credible immediate replacement for their products, because they actually work, most any nation or farmer for that matter can make them. They can't be held for perpetual economic ransom forever once they set up their own distilleries and oil presses. That is a *threat* to the oil companies, a huge threat, same as the EV1 electric car was, because it worked.

Biofuels only added to the total amount of fuels this past year, if anything they helped supply the demand, and oil/fuel prices are directly tied to food prices, so by increasing fuels supplies they should have actually helped in a very small way to keep prices down, but all of that is negated with the speculator action in the "pits" and higher than that stuff I can't prove but suspect in rigging the markets in such a huge way that no one nation could take them on with any sort of anti trust action. And I can't speak for other farmers or types of products, but we are getting less this year for both poultry and beef than what we were getting last year, so who is getting/making the extra profit again? Here is one reference from my point of view besides my observed anecdotal on these extremely fast price increases and their origins.

With that said, I don't know, eliminate the impossible, what is left over, no matter how improbable, is the truthiness ;)

well, it could be...

Scott Drake

Fri Jul 04 22:10:23 -0700 2008

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I, too, am wary of the WB/IMF - their Friedman-inspired experiments with the remains of South American governments in the 80s is evidence of their capacity for malice/cynicism/incompetence.

However, this is in line with every other analysis except the current U.S. administration's. Which suggests a complicated gambit indeed, with the oil-class administration feigning support against their interests, if we accept your assertion that big oil wishes to bury biofuels.

My read on the situation is that what began as a concession to red agriculture states became a pretext for a medium-scale raid on the treasury. ADM is making billions from corn ethanol production, in spite of the fact that no one is buying it retail. Your small producers are rare indeed.

Don't get me wrong. There really is crappy market manipulation going on. You know from my previous comments that I agree with your assessment about who the "speculators" actually are in the current commodity futures markets. But I have come to the conclusion that there is a supply issue with food.

Also, I silently weep for humanity when I see a "flex-fuel" Chevy Tahoe flying down the road at 85mph. Serious first steps in staving off a true energy emergency: Lower the speed limit. Fix train infrastructure. Eliminate loopholes in regulations of both the auto and energy markets. Generally try harder not to be fetishistic consumerist freakshows.

well, it could be...

Uncle Entity

Sat Jul 05 00:33:24 -0700 2008

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I, too, am wary of the WB/IMF - their Friedman-inspired experiments with the remains of South American governments in the 80s is evidence of their capacity for malice/cynicism/incompetence.

What experiments would that be, following Friedman monetarist policies or opening up their markets for subsidized Euro and US foodstuffs?

Either way the hand is stacked against a free market/free trade situation so all you have left is that State interference is the root cause of the problems.

But I have come to the conclusion that there is a supply issue with food.

Yeah, too much fiat money chasing the same or even a slight increase in the amount of food driving up its price in relation to money.

Serious first steps in staving off a true energy emergency: Lower the speed limit. Fix train infrastructure. Eliminate loopholes in regulations of both the auto and energy markets. Generally try harder not to be fetishistic consumerist freakshows.

Yes, fine and noble eco-marxist goals.

I think you will find over the next few years that the Federal Reserve has 'fixed' the consumer driven economy for good this time. If, and that's a big if, they ever let real incomes return to previous levels it is highly doubtful that the inflationary booms in the past will still be a viable means to 'grow' the economy since the dollar is tottering on the edge of hyperinflation as it is trying to keep 20+ years of malinvestments from crumbling away all at once and the common person won't have the home ATM to draw from as that's part of the 'enormous destruction of wealth' they are trying to keep at artificially high bubble levels.

What's this mean for Average Joe you ask? Chances are that the extremely high percentage of their wages being spent on energy will continue as this isn't the result of 'speculation' but an active policy on the part of the Fed to drive down wages to keep price inflation in check. If people don't have money to spend then they can't drive prices up—you can't make this stuff up, that's their actual line of reasoning.

Now the only option is for people to invest in more energy efficient forms of transportation to offset this rise in costs since most won't see a raise that compensates because of the underhanded way this was accomplished. There you go, the unintended answer to the 'fetishistic consumerist freakshows'.

Don't believe me, where do you suppose they draw the conclusion that we don't have inflationary wage pressures like the 70s from? They're just moving all the pawns around the chessboard perched on the edge of financial ruin trying to keep the balance at a place where the whole board doesn't tip over the edge.

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Scott Drake

Sat Jul 05 01:19:08 -0700 2008

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I find your "free market/free trade situation" as probable as you find a Worker's Paradise.

I'll admit that "fetishistic consumerist freakshow" may have been a little over the top. It just has a certain ring to it. I like the "fine and noble eco-marxist goals", as well.

This submission wasn't intended to start a debate between Communism and Capitalism, both with capital C's (and I don't want to have to argue for either). I posted it because there is a food crisis growing because we want to fuel our SUVs with topsoil instead up updating our infrastructure (imho).

I'd like look at the problem (at least the transportation part) as an engineering problem. Trains seem like a good start.

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GuyFawkes

Sat Jul 05 04:33:14 -0700 2008

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I'd like look at the problem (at least the transportation part) as an engineering problem. Trains seem like a good start.

Speaking as an engineer (and I are one... sic) then technically it isn't a real problem.

Transportation can be sorted without screwing with anything else (suburbs etc) simply by electrifying the roads, all that takes is a 2 wire (rubber tyres innit) system and pantograph over all the major roads, simply pull the drive train from all existing vehicles and replace with electric motors, computers are more than able to handle pantograph and therefore vehicle tracking.

Minor roads and suchlike can be dealt with by onboard battery capacity and a small, efficient generator.

The power to run the system can come from a network of nuke plants.

The pantograph system can also transmit data.

This is doable, today, with existing technology, no pie in the sky, no significant cultural changes, and perhaps most importantly this significant manufacturing goal will create a great deal of distributed wealth.

However, engineering is never purely a technical process, first you have to get from where we are to a place where an engineer has a set of plans, a budget, and authority, to put the plan into action.

Things have to get a lot worse before that sort of political and social will gets powerful enough to build german autobahns or american interstates, just look at history.

well, it could be...

Scott Drake

Sat Jul 05 11:46:02 -0700 2008

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Thank you, engineer.

That's the sort of comment I was fishing for with that last paragraph.

And about history, I would like to submit the fact that the U.S. Interstate and German Autobahn did get built as evidence for optimism.

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President4242

Mon Jul 07 11:09:02 -0700 2008

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Of course, a major difference is that the US Interstate and the German Autobahn got built by PEOPLE INTERESTED IN THE COMMON WELLFARE.  As opposed to our current  crop of libertarian individualists.

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rubycodez

Sun Jul 06 15:41:45 -0700 2008

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there are any number of practical, done-already solutions to most  of man's problems

 

implementation is however terrorist talk

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haeger

Sat Jul 05 04:04:45 -0700 2008

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What I don't understand is why methane isn't used as a fuel more. It's high on energy, every farmer in the world could produce it and use it for powering his/her own vehicles, or sell if they produce enough.

Similar to this: http://www.inc.com/magazine/20061101/green50_roadcrew_pagen_2.html

or this: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/327785_waste16.html

Oh, and the thing about biofuels. I heard that it's about 1% (worldwide) of the famland that's being used to produce biofuels, and about 56% (in the US, don't know worldwide) to produce beef, and 1/3 of all corn worldwide is used to feed livestock. Someone feel free to correct the 1% number if you find it. The rest can be found online.

And the demand for beef is increasing now that  China is getting
 richer.

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haeger

Sat Jul 05 05:35:15 -0700 2008

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1/3 of all corn worldwide is used to feed livestock.

My bad, it's not corn, it's 1/3 of all GRAIN.

It's got electrolytes

Scott Drake

Sat Jul 05 17:05:37 -0700 2008

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The 1% number is extremely misleading.

A better question would be this: What percentage of total agricultural production is being used for fuel?

That more relevant number is slightly harder to find for the world. Which is presumably why organizations like the World Bank and Oxfam have to do analyses.

Taking a smaller slice of the problem, corn in the U.S.: 30% of the corn production is forecast to be used for ethanol this year. Corn accounts for 90% of total production.

It may also interest you to know that China is the second-largest producer of corn. The canard that all of the west's problems are due to China or India rising out of poverty is getting old.

If you're not afraid of the CFR, here is an excellent analysis from late May: How Ethanol Fuels the Food Crisis

If you've got foreignaffairs.org blacklisted ;), here is prepared testimony from Joachim von Braun, of the International Food Policy Research Institute, from his testimony before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources : Biofuels, International Food Prices, and the Poor. (His numbers are actually much more conservative than the World Bank report)

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Uncle Entity

Fri Jul 04 23:48:29 -0700 2008

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A glance at the price for Brent and WTI futures prices since January 2006 indicates the remarkable correlation between skyrocketing oil prices and the unregulated trade in ICE oil futures in US markets.

That's the basis of their entire argument right there, a correlation between oil prices and unregulated trade.

And as they say, correlation != causation.

Pretty much everything else they use as 'evidence' is a strawman at best.

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Scott Drake

Sat Jul 05 00:40:29 -0700 2008

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Those pesky strawmen...

Btw, on a totally unrelated note, the strength of a globalresearch.ca article is not evidence in support of total deregulation of futures markets. ;)

Truth be told, my life gets objectively better as gas prices rise: The meat-grinder that some call a highway, running half a mile from my home, has slowed it pace noticeably.

My concern about institutional investors gaming the system stems from my concern about my folks' retirement funds. When bubbles burst, the financial architects almost never have to pay. The accounts they steered do, though.

I am afraid of the possibility of tens of millions productive U.S. citizens retiring into homeless shelters while a few thousand financial insiders bail out, unscathed. Peoples' retirement funds are in great danger from this dickery.

And anyhoo... How about a new section for "Food Security"? Returning to the topic: Food insecurity spreading. Our environmentally questionable policies to blame. We (the rich folks) ignore this at our peril.