The New Poor

Wed Jul 02 16:08:00 -0700 2008
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The extreme sudden rise in energy prices is starting to impact rural Americans in a large way. Entire small communities are in peril of just becoming near ghost towns, as transportation costs become simply impossible to meet. The shrinking jobs market as thousands of factories were moved overseas, which meant farther and farther away commutes chasing the remaining jobs, and the rising prices of everything else will necessitate hard choices.

Some will choose to "move closer to work", but that philosophy doesn't square with the reality on the ground that as you get closer to "the work places", closer to the big urban areas in other words, the cost of living for rents or home ownership goes up, and their pay scales at their jobs still can't match the needs, and millions more moving closer in will drive up the prices anyway as existing units become more in demand so landlords can easily demand more money. New units can be built, but they are the most expensive then, because it is all brand new costs, so the rents or notes will be high as well. How about soviet styled huge square concrete block houses, isn't that just appetizing? is that what we want? In essence we are creating over a two year period millions of "new desperate poor" who are simply unable to exist economically, because they have no viable alternatives in the numbers large enough to matter. The jobs aren't there that pay enough for what they can do, their current jobs don't and can't pay enough (and even those continue to trickle away), and staying where they are now is impossible when it gets to choosing between food or fuel or heat or paying the note or..anything. My six gallons of stuff from the 5 gallon bucket deal, you reach a point where it just is not possible.

"When people move away, towns lose their tax base," Mudd said. "Then you can't fix streets ... you can't do much of anything. That makes even more people leave.

"Pretty soon, won't be much left in these old towns."

ed.z.: I won't type all caps, but you can imagine it for this:[mode=sad and mad rant] they mention the trains, US vs Europe in this article and JUST DANG IT, I distinctly remember just ranting on numerous occasions against this scheme way back when it was implemented, I said that we needed exactly the opposite, to reinvigorate rail transport to keep what was already built in good shape and actually working, both cargo and for travel. Industry blew it, the watermelon mindset blew it, political leadership had nothing but a year or two max forward looking dataset to ponder so they blew it too. We *had* rail lines all over, that were used for a long time, when I was in grade school I used to sweep the floors at a rural rail station that still had some freight and some passenger traffic. They were there, all over the US, people used them for decades until corporate "industry" decided it was "no good" and others jumped on the bandwagon to bring about "short term greeness", at least I'll call it that. (and they are doing the same with all the little dams they are destroying now on purpose, hydro potential gone, stored water gone) Now tons of these already used to exist rail lines and working stations are just poofed away, and it wasn't that long ago either. We paid cash to rip out already established critical infrastructure, and now look, we *need it* and if it was proposed to be rebuilt it would cost one buhzillion new scam bucks to do it, so it won't happen.

I absolutely have nothing against hiking and biking, nothing whatsoever, it is great healthy fun, done more than my share compared to most folks I bet, but this is the US we have here, it is big here, and we always have had a lot of places to do that stuff as recreation other than for them to be ripping out the needed nuts and bolts infrastructure. Why not rip the roads and bridges out? Same deal. You either want to move large quantities of people and stuff efficiently and cheaply because you have to, or you do not. You either keep your infrastructure intact so that it can be used, or you do not. Now, millions of instant poor folks, what are they supposed to do? Move to town with their 8 buck an hour jobs so they can be faced with 800 dollar and up single bed apartments, plus utilities? This is the grand solution? Try to sell their used cars for a grand so they can go stand in line to try and buy 25 grand priuses, and pay that off as well as their new rents with their 8 buck an hour jobs? nuts.. We keep inching closer and closer to the two class technofeudalistic society, that is the endgame here, the triumph and resurrection of the aristocracy. Millions of owners being turned into poorer serfs and perpetual renters, just love-ly. 2008-The Year of the Great Heist.

The New Poor
Wed Jul 02 17:56:28 -0700 2008
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 Well, the June jobs numbers are due out tomorrow.  ADP, the largest private sector payroll processing firm in the U.S., released their report today that said there was a loss of 79,000 private sector jobs last month.  They also reported the first decline in service sector jobs since 2002.

ADP also downwardly revised May job gains to 25,000, from the 40,000 gain it originally reported.

ADP only estimates private sector jobs, not government jobs. Adding in the roughly 20,000 government jobs created each month, today's ADP number suggests a 59,000 drop in June non-farm payrolls.

In automotive news, Merrill Lynch is saying GM needs to raise $15 billion to avoid bankruptcy.  Their stock hit a 54 year low today.  GM employs approximately 266,000 people.

Ford, with 246,000 employees, is also staring at bleak numbers with speculations of bankrupcy surrounding them.

On the upside a federal district court judge in Wisconsin ruled that a Maryland bank (Chevy Chase) must rescind loans made to certain borrowers who took out option adjustable-rate mortgages because the bank violated the Federal Truth in Lending Act.

The Wisconsin  court ruling applies only to borrowers who received the disclosures cited specifically in the case, and only to borrowers who used their option ARM to refinance the mortgage on their primary residence. In the past few years at Chevy Chase, option ARMs have made up "more than half" of mortgage originations. The bank issued $7 billion in mortgages last year.

"Rescind" means to allow the borrower to get out of the loan, and they have to give back all interest and fees collected.

big soviet concrete block style house

Wed Jul 02 18:27:27 -0700 2008
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oh, they had that type of housing in Chicago with 15,000 residents, police and ambulance and fire departments even scared to go in or near those things.  I knew  this guy  who collected monthy payments for TV's and such door to door there, sported a big stainless 6" .357 magnum Colt  Python revolver stuffed into his belt, his police buddies overlooked that, white boy wouldn't last 2 minutes without it.

 

So we'll be "needing" mass amounts of that kind of thing again, lovely.

hi there

Wed Jul 02 19:21:12 -0700 2008
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So, I'm objectively, demonstrably highly skilled and physically limited. I got butt-fucked in and around 2000 by a particular corp and never quite recovered. I know first hand the non-linearities of poverty (the poorer you are, the higher the cost of living -- not higher relative to income but higher in absolute terms). Lately, I think of my past 8 years experience as, um, preview channel for what a lot of formerly middle class folks are about to go through.

Oh, and, among these ranks will be no shortage of returning soldiers.

Buckle up, folks.. bumpy night and yadda yadda....

-t

hi there
Thu Jul 03 01:54:15 -0700 2008
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(the poorer you are, the higher the cost of living -- not higher relative to income but higher in absolute terms)

This is a CRUCIAL point that I hammer home at every possible opportunity here, it is almost impossible to overstate it.

The wealthy person can buy sides of beef and lay it up.

The first rung of the ladder is you need someplace to call "home", with "home" you can store a couple of weeks worth of food, cook cheaper, wash cheaper, stay warm and dry cheaper, and be contacted so you can get whatever work is going.

Debt of any kind is grease on that first rung of the ladder.

hi there
Thu Jul 03 09:10:27 -0700 2008
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[....] it is almost impossible to overstate it

Ok, then...

The wealthy person can buy sides of beef and lay it up.

Buying in quantity is one part of it, yup. Now observe how that part of it multiplies: if you're buying in smaller units, sure, your unit price goes up. Additionally you have to buy more frequently which means more time spent shopping. If your time has any value at all, there goes more of your money. Not just the higher unit price but also the extra labor tax.

Another part of the problem that people often overlook is the time value of money. If you're poor, you probably don't have much or anything by way of lines of credit. Personal debt is a bad idea anyway so lack of credit isn't much of a loss day to day however, a line of credit is excellent insurance (of a sort). Some fairly rich friends of mine are in a cash bind, for example. Well, suppose that, I don't know, their car (which they depend upon) breaks down in a big way. They at least have the option of taking out a loan to get back on the road. If your poorer, you don't have that option and you have to become your own insurer. And this is where the time opportunity of money comes in because if you have some cash, and commensurate needs, it often makes sense to defer the purchase of your needs (just in case your car breaks down). You wind up doing dismal calculations like: "Gee, what does the late payment fee for the phone service work out to interest-wise and how does that compare to the risk premium of not having any cash for 2 weeks? And, do I have any choice, anyway?" Having to play games like that means that, de facto, your cash isn't cash at all - it's a loan on which you are constantly paying interest.

Let's also not forget interest rates. If you're poor, the absolute best interest rate you can get for any "spare" cash you might have is a basic "passbook savings" account which, typically, won't even beat inflation. The rich guy can just dump his cash in, his worst case, something like a CD and, with enough of those cost-averaged over time, stay plenty enough liquid. So: poor = it costs money to have cash; rich = you get paid for having cash.

Hmm. What else, uh... let's see... oh! tools! This is similar to "buying in quantity" but not quite the same. By example: last year and this combined I will probably spend enough faxing things from the local copy center that, if I had all that cash in a pile at the start I could have bought a fax machine and come out ahead. If I had bought a fax machine at the start that would have meant paying bills late and taking on hightened risk of being cash-less, though, and if you figure that into the cost of the fax machine the price of the machine goes up. So, buck-a-page faxing is the more rational choice but no rich person pays that much unless for convenience.

It's basically getting nickel and dimed at every step. It's agonizing compared to the period of time back in the day when, indeed, we kept a heck of a larder, etc. One thing we did Right back then was invest heavily in domestic tools. Serious kitchen equipment that lasts a long time; robust, apartment-sized washer and dryer; that kind of thing. That stuff added up to several grand but has had no problem whatsoever paying for itself and more. Shoulda got a better fax machine, though. Just didn't see the need coming, went el cheapo on that one, and it died at an inconvenient time.

-t

Trail with Rail

Wed Jul 02 23:21:49 -0700 2008
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I love Trail by Rail. The trails on rail right-of-way are extremely nice to ride. Besides, there’s no real reason why Rail (By | With) Trail necessitates the removal of rails.   It is just that Americans do not see the value of a functioning rail system. I remember while I was in uni there was a lot of whining about Amtrak funding (and as I recall Reagan gutted the funding) and now there is another funding bill in congress and there is whining about it.  Based on the vociferous whining on most of the occasions rail funding hits congress it seems to me like many Americans just *hate* rail. This is something I don’t quite understand.  Particularly in light of the advantages of modern rail transport.

In any case electric mixed rail is a pretty efficient way to move people and freight and as the cost of liquid fuels increases I fully expect my neck of the woods to eventually fund nuke construction in neighboring countries to power our rail.

In regards to the “new poor” After years of conversations with such people, who dismissed the risk of a lifestyle predicated on unrealistically inexpensive fuels, this in no way surprises me.  I don’t think this has to happen at all… it’s that for so long they did not have think of the most energy efficient method of doing things and now they do… maybe the collapse of a string of small towns is what is needed to get people off their ass and solving their problems.  Also sounds like an opportunity for a group who has solved such problems to get a good deal on land… and I happen to be looking for land.

Trail with Rail
Thu Jul 03 00:49:25 -0700 2008
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I love Trail by Rail. The trails on rail right-of-way are extremely nice to ride. Besides, there’s no real reason why Rail (By | With) Trail necessitates the removal of rails.

Here it generally happens decades after the rail line has been closed. The rail alignment can be as much as 100 metres wide and trail maintenance is paid by rent from farmers who lease parts of the alignment.

So yes, there is plenty of room.

Trail with Rail
Thu Jul 03 12:35:07 -0700 2008
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I have a hypothesis about why we hate rail in the US.

Disclaimer: I love rail for personal travel and think there's just about no better alternative.

Rail has great bandwidth, efficiency, and even latency for long haul of large quantities along popular routes. The US is too big and needs too chaotic. Hence, the road system is preferable for ground travel much of the time.

The other hypothesis I have is that roads are probably, in the long run, just about as good. Cut down on car traffic and add in some computer-run conveys and you have rail-less rail, almost. Less efficient per mile but a lot more flexible so it's probably a wash.

Damn shame, though. Passenger rail can be a true joy.

-t

Need bus not train

Thu Jul 03 04:48:24 -0700 2008
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Sure trains are nice but they were primarily for inter-city travel, not commuting, except in urban areas. The plain old bus is not glamorous but is more likely to get people from where they are to where they need to be. The problem with many small and medium bus systems is that the routes simply don't go far enough. They need to at least go to the neighboring towns, along strip highways, and reach expressway exits within 15 miles or so. Many smaller bus systems look like they were designed primarily to be used to reach downtown for a bit of mid-day shopping. These systems are now in need of redesign.

Need bus not train
Fri Jul 04 06:00:28 -0700 2008
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For the 150 km commute mentioned in the article, nothing beats the comfort and speed of a train. The best a bus can do is drive people from neighboring towns to the station, and from the station around the destination city.

Crisis or Opportunity?

Fri Jul 04 07:16:50 -0700 2008
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Consider this:

$8/hr x 40hrs/week x 52weeks/year = $16,640 a year

 

Checking city-data.com and ePodunk.com shows that this is indeed a "normal" income for a lot of small towns.

Consider also that there are a lot of us soon-to-be-retirees that have worked hard for the last 40-50 years (I've been working since I was 14) and we were raised to be frugal and to save. Quite a few of us have pretty nice nest eggs. Heck, even my Social Security alone will be $20K a year.

If you can attract a retiree family that will spend $50K a year from now on, that's equivalent to creating three full-time jobs that nobody has to drive anywhere for. Attract half a dozen such families, and you've made a significant economic impact on a small town. It might even make the difference between the town surviving and dying.

Also, quite a few of us will come with significant skillsets. I've worked as a carpenter, an electrician, an electronics repairman, and an engineer. How many small towns wish that they had someone who could teach chemistry / physics / electronics / computers / algebra / calculus / statistics / economics (my skillset)? They wouldn't even have to pay us - we'd volunteer!

Quite a few of us are rural kids to begin with. Well water and septic tanks are fine with us - after all, that's the way we were raised! We're also familiar with the idea of "errands day" - get up early in the morning, drive into nearby town (city), spend the day running all our errands, and then drive home late in the evening. The car stays parked the other six days a week. If something didn't get done, it'll just have to wait for next week.

My wife and I have reached the age where we're considering where to retire. We currently have a list of 34 small towns we want to check out. We visited one (population = 345) this last weekend. We'll add more to the list if we see someting interesting.

Eventually, small towns will realize that there are hundreds of thousands of us looking for a small, quiet, friendly, safe place to spend our remaining years. Just put out the "Welcome Retirees!" sign. A packet containing a town directory, a map and maybe some coupons for local businesses would be helpful too.

The New Poor
Mon Jul 07 14:59:37 -0700 2008
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The US doesn't have the population density of Europe, so I don't think your rail comparison applies. You need a certain density for rail to be sustainable. The US landscape, the sprawl, is what it is because of the automobile. If gas prices keep going up you are going to see mass migration to urban areas in the US regardless of how many train tracks exist.